Warning! Your browser is extremely outdated and not web standards compliant.
Your browsing experience would greatly improve by upgrading to a modern browser.

Oregon Public Safety Competitiveness Index

INTRODUCTION

Oregon has a problem with crime, homelessness, and drugs, ranking the state forty-six worst in the nation for public safety. Despite increasing spending on public safety per capita by 48.1% from 2011 to 2021, the third largest increase nationwide, they rank 2nd lowest in police per capita. Though the crime rate has decreased 12.2% from 2011, Oregonians are voting with their feet by leaving the state. In 2011, net in migration was 17,931, but in 2022 net in migration was -29,730, a 264% decrease. Legislators and public officials have begun to reluctantly reverse ill conceived relaxation of many criminal penalties, beginning with the February 2024 recriminalization of possession and use of drugs. It is a step in the right direction, but resources need to be shifted back to basic policing and crime prevention and district attorney’s need to enforce penalties when the law is broken. Failure to do so will likely result in further decreases in net in migration. Public safety is crucial to a state’s ability to attract newcomers, keep existing residents, bring in new businesses, and expand those already located in the state. This has reduced the attractiveness of the state, as shown by declining migration, and will have economic consequences corrective actions are not pursued. Though the crime rate has decreased 12.2% from 2011, Oregonians are voting with their feet by leaving the state.

 

KEY FINDINGS

  • Oregon’s Public Safety Competitiveness Index declined from 69 in 2011 to 67 in 2023.
  • Public spending per capita increased 48.1% from $769.71 in 2011 to $1140.21 in 2023.
  • The Crime rate declined 12.2% from 3362.2 to 2950.9 in 2023. Despite this Oregon’s Crime Rate Competitiveness Index declined from 69 to 61 as other states saw larger declines in the crime rate.
  • Drug overdose deaths per capita increased 155.3 percent from 2011 to 2023, and as a result the Drug Overdose Per Capita Competitiveness Index declined from 87 to 74 as other states either saw declines in drug overdose deaths per capita or experienced lower increases than Oregon.
  • Despite public spending on public safety increasing 48.1% from 2011 to 2023, the number of police per capita (1,000 residents) declined from 1.6 to 1.5 and the Police Per Capita (1,000 residents) Competitiveness Index went from 50 to 51, dead last.
  • The number of incidents of murder/negligent homicide increased 46.2% from 2022 to 2023.
  • The number of incidents of vagrancy increased 105.4% from 2020 to 2013.
CSI issues a Free Enterprise Report annually. The report assesses the state’s competitiveness relative to forty-nine other states and the District of Columbia and provides data and analysis on eight policy areas: education, energy, healthcare, housing, infrastructure, public safety, state budget, and taxes and fees. This report is intended to provide additional details on the state budget competitiveness not covered in the Free Enterprise Report. The competitiveness indices should be interpreted as follows: an increase (decrease) in an index indicates increased (decreased) competitiveness relative to the other forty-nine states and District of Columbia. Oregon’s individual performance may improve, for example, its crime rate may decrease, however, other states may have seen greater decreases, and this will cause Oregon’s competitiveness in the crime rate to decline.

 

STATE PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS  INDEX

To gauge how well states are performing regarding housing CSI produces a State Public Safety Competitiveness Index for all fifty states and the District of Columbia consisting of five metrics that capture distinct aspects of public safety, these include the public safety spending per capita, drug overdose deaths, police per capita, the crime rate, and homelessness. Each metric is ranked relative to all fifty states and the District of Columbia. Then the four ranked metrics are equally weighted and summed. This value is ranked again to produce an aggregate measure of housing competitiveness as shown in Figure 1. Oregon’s Public Competitiveness Index was 69 in 2011 and then decreased to 67 in 2023. An increase (decrease) in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index is a positive (negative) qualitative change – i.e., the state is more competitive as the index approaches one hundred and less competitive as the index declines. FIGURE 1 – OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS INDEX   Figure 2 shows the evolution of the five components included in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index. The decline in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index was the result of declines in two of the component competitiveness indices and moderate increases in the other three. The Competitiveness Index for Police per Capita increased from 50 in 2011 to 51 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for the Crime Rate decreased from 69 in 2011 to 61 in 2023. Meanwhile, the Competitiveness Index for Public Safety Spending per Capita increased from 88 in 2011 to 96 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for Drug Overdose Deaths increased from 87 in 2011 to 74 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for Homelessness increased from 51 in 2011 to 52 in 2023. The underlying cause of Oregon’s decrease in public safety competitiveness was primarily the result of decreases in the Crime Rate Competitiveness Index and the Drug Overdose Deaths Per Capita Competitiveness Index relative to other states.

FIGURE 2 – OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS INDEX COMPONENTS  

 

PUBLIC SAFETY SPENDING PER CAPITA COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC

To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness for public safety spending per capita was the result of a change in its own performance, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in together with the competitiveness index, see Figure 3. The index increased from 88 in 2011 to 96 in 2023. This increase was the result of a 48% increase in the underlying metric and other states having smaller increases in the underlying metric relative to Oregon, meaning Oregon has increased spending on public safety more than other states. In 2011, Oregon public safety spending per capita was $769.71. This increased to $1140.21 in 2023, a 48.1% increase.

FIGURE 3 –OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY SPENDING PER CAPITA COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC  

 

DRUG OVERDOSE DEATHS PER CAPITA - COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC

To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the drug overdose deaths per capita was the result of a change in its own performance or the metric underlying the competitiveness index, Figure 4 shows the index and the underlying metric. Both the index and the underlying metric rose from 2011 to 2023. The index decreased from 87 in 2011 to 74 in 2023. The underlying metric increased from 0.000123 in 2011 to 0.000314 in 2023, a 155.3% increase and this is what drove the competitiveness index down as the underlying metric increased much more than in other states.

FIGURE 4 – DRUG OVERDOSE DEATHS PER CAPITA – COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC  

 

POLICE PER CAPITA (1,000 RESIDENTS) COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC

To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the police per capita (1,000 residents) was the result of a change in its own performance or larger or smaller changes in the metric in other states, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in conjunction with the competitiveness index, see Figure 5. The primary driver of the decline in the competitiveness index was the result of an increase in the underlying metric, meaning there are more police per capita now. In 2011, the metric was 1.7 police officers per 1,000 residents. That increased to 1.8 in 2023. As a result, the competitiveness index increased from 54 in 2011 to 59 in 2023.

FIGURE 5 – POLICE PER CAPITA (1,000 RESIDENTS) COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC - OREGON  

 

CRIME RATE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC

To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the Crime rate was the result of a change in its own performance, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in conjunction with the competitiveness index, see Figure 6. Data from 2011 through 2020 was based on the FBI’s previous data classification. CSI assumes the crime rates for the years 2021, 2022, 2023 are the same as 2020. The FBI is now using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) so the next iteration of the Crime Rate Competitiveness Index will utilize NIBRS. The primary driver of the decline in the competitiveness index was the result of a large decrease in the underlying metric. In 2011, the metric was 3362.2 but had declined 12.2% to 2950.9 in 2023. Despite the decrease in the crime rate, the crime rate competitiveness index declined from 69 in 2011 to 61 in 2023 as other states experienced lower crime rates over time.

FIGURE 6 – CRIME RATE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC - OREGON  

 

CRIME RATES IN OREGON 2011 TO 2023

Data shown in Figures 8 and 9, comes from the Oregon Bureau of Investigation Crime Statistics. These data differ from the data used to calculate the competitiveness index and as such, the two data sets are not comparable. Shown in Figure 8, the crime rate for all offenses declined 9.3% from 2020 to 2023, with the largest decrease coming from crimes against society (-13.8%), followed by crimes against property (-3.9%). The only major category of crime that increased was crimes against person, rising 0.3%.

FIGURE 8 - AVERAGE MONTHLY CRIME RATE FOR MAJOR CRIME CATEGORIES & VIOLENT CRIMES

Average Monthly Crime Incidents (Based on NIBRS)
2020 2021 2022 2023 % Change 2020-2023
Other 4701 3946 3676 3450 -26.6%
Person 3510 3550 3604 3520 0.3%
Property 15080 15183 16288 14498 -3.9%
Society 7736 6690 6624 6669 -13.8%
All Offenses 31027 29370 30191 28137 -9.3%

 

Figure 9 shows the number of crime incidents by specific crime for 2020-2023. Decreases in incidents are shown in red and increases are shown in green. Out of sixty-three categories, 25 saw increases in the number of incidents and 38 saw declines. The largest increases occurred in prostitution (940%), vagrancy violations (105.4%), shoplifting (48.2%, extortion/blackmail (54.6%), and murder and negligent manslaughter (46.2%).

FIGURE 9 – NUMBER OF CRIME INCIDENTS BY SPECIFIC CRIME (NIBRS)

Number of Crime Incident by Specific Crime (NIBRS)
Oregon Specific Crime (ONIBRS) 2020 2021 2022 2022 2023 % Change 2020-2023
Aggravated Assault 7459 8760 8551 8551 8034 7.7%
All Other Offenses 31912 32530 32207 32207 29984 -6.0%
Peeping Tom 29 37 33 33 36 24.1%
Family Offenses, Nonviolent 718 578 517 517 503 -29.9%
Forcible Rape 1187 1284 1268 1268 1207 1.7%
Intimidation 5815 5212 5540 5540 5478 -5.8%
Kidnapping 431 468 457 457 391 -9.3%
Forcible Fondling 1436 1615 1634 1634 1478 2.9%
Sexual Assault with Object 214 222 252 252 206 -3.7%
Statutory Rape 335 312 326 326 284 -15.2%
Incest 70 66 70 70 53 -24.3%
Forcible Sodomy 377 433 408 408 340 -9.8%
Simple Assault 19594 19437 20138 20138 20403 4.1%
Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter 119 184 188 188 174 46.2%
Arson 1361 1469 1280 1280 1326 -2.6%
Burglary/Breaking and Entering 14570 14169 15344 15344 13970 -4.1%
Counterfeiting/Forgery 3413 2867 3062 3062 2891 -15.3%
Embezzlement 286 269 267 267 226 -21.0%
Extortion/Black mail 174 238 274 274 269 54.6%
False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game 6599 5766 5583 5583 5767 -12.6%
Identity Theft 5931 6364 5670 5670 5593 -5.7%
Wire fraud 898 895 1047 1047 941 4.8%
Impersonation 609 540 435 435 422 -30.7%
Credit Card/Auto Teller Machine Fraud 3533 3483 3498 3498 3145 -11.0%
Bad Checks 83 28 41 41 40 -51.8%
Welfare Fraud 16 14 20 20 17 6.3%
All Other Larceny 29411 26466 27880 27880 25830 -12.2%
Shoplifting 15831 15414 19290 19290 23459 48.2%
Theft From Motor Vehicles 26155 24381 24825 24825 19100 -27.0%
Pocket-Picking 321 341 382 382 341 6.2%
Theft From Building 6040 5871 6631 6631 6332 4.8%
Purse-Snatching 353 430 391 391 430 21.8%
Theft From Motor Vehicles Parts/ Accessories 5358 9684 9439 9439 4208 -21.5%
Theft From Coin-Operated Machine or Device 265 162 164 164 132 -50.2%
Motor Vehicle Theft 16195 19710 23156 23156 17411 7.5%
Robbery 2241 2604 2930 2930 2643 17.9%
Stolen Property Offenses 1144 1468 1700 1700 1362 19.1%
 
Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property 37900 37986 38286 38286 33711 -11.1%
Trespass of Real Property 15903 12419 13864 13864 14217 -10.6%
Animal Cruelty 415 482 478 478 494 19.0%
Curfew/Loitering/Vagrancy Violations 203 93 120 120 417 105.4%
Disorderly Conduct 10989 8648 8434 8434 8320 -24.3%
Driving Under the Influence 12377 13513 13529 13529 14289 15.4%
Drug/Narcotic Violations 14699 7578 6035 6035 6729 -54.2%
Drug Equipment Violations 1358 903 653 653 828 -39.0%
Liquor Law Violations 2231 1197 1361 1361 1275 -42.9%
Pornography/Obscene Material 612 607 596 596 620 1.3%
Runaway 1742 1044 1098 1098 1073 -38.4%
Weapon Law Violations 6374 6186 5993 5993 5921 -7.1%
Hacking/Computer Invasion 195 216 158 158 103 -47.2%
Assist or Promote Prostitution 43 63 47 47 56 30.2%
Prostitution 67 142 101 101 75 11.9%
Negligent Manslaughter 51 44 44 44 42 -17.6%
Human Trafficking - Commercial Sex Acts 32 31 29 29 37 15.6%
Human Trafficking - Involuntary Servitude 4 4 7 7 6 50.0%
Bribery 11 11 10 10 5 -54.5%
Gambling Equipment Violation 0 1 0 0 0
Justifiable Homicide 8 15 14 14 7 -12.5%
Purchasing Prostitution 15 115 60 60 156 940.0%
Sports Tampering 2 0 4 4 0 -100.0%
OUCR Only Crime 624 0 0 0 0 -100.0%
Drunkenness 2 0 0 0 0 -100.0%
Operating/Promoting/Assisting Gambling 1 0 0 0 0 -100.0%
Total 316341 305069 315819 315819 292807
 

 

GOING FORWARD

The crime rate in Oregon has come down since 2011 but there is still much to be done to rectify the situation created by soft on crime policies and liberal drug policies. Oregon is ranked 46th out fifty states and the District of Columbia in public safety. It ranks 4th highest in public safety spending per capita but 49th in police per capita.
Jobs & Our Economy
Inflation in the Pacific Region September 2024

Inflation appears stable, as the Fed implements an anticipated rate cut.

October 10, 2024 Serra KirschMark McMullen
Jobs & Our Economy
Oregon Inflation Misery Index

The CSI Inflation Misery Index for Oregon calculates the additional monetary expenditure necessitated by inflation rates exceeding the central bank’s target of 2%.

October 09, 2024 Serra Kirsch
Infrastructure
Oregon's Infrastructure Competitiveness: Leading the Way in the Pacific Northwest

Oregon's Infrastructure Competitiveness Index has demonstrated resilience from 2011 to 2023.

September 25, 2024 Serra Kirsch
Crime & Public Safety
Oregon’s Ongoing Fentanyl Crisis

Most western states have seen above-average growth in fentanyl use during recent years. Even so, Oregon’s experience stands out relative to its neighbors. Since the pandemic began, fentanyl-related overdose

June 26, 2024 Mark McMullen