Domestic Migration Data – 2024

Population Recovers, Income Drains: Who Is Moving to and from Oregon

Recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and Portland State University's Population Research Center indicate that Oregon's population has returned to modest growth after two years of decline. Historically, Oregon consistently ranked among the top states for population growth from net migration, but the state has experienced profound demographic shifts since 2020. The last time Oregon saw its population decline was in the early 1980s, when wood product mills closed across the state. The current environment is much different, with the job market healthy in most regions — yet migration patterns have fundamentally changed.

The recent recovery is real but fragile. In 2024, domestic migration turned positive for the first time since 2021, with roughly 5,600 more arrivals than departures, and international migration has grown substantially. However, both inflows and outflows declined, suggesting a broad cooling of migration activity rather than a renewed surge of newcomers. Meanwhile, Oregon's natural population growth remains structurally negative. With a total fertility rate of 1.36 in 2024 — the fifth lowest among all states and well below the 2.1 replacement level, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics — deaths now consistently outnumber births, meaning migration is the only path to population growth for the foreseeable future.

Beneath the headline numbers, this report finds that Oregon's migration challenge is increasingly about who is moving rather than how many. IRS Statistics of Income data reveal that departing households consistently out-earn arriving ones, with the state losing a net $476 million in adjusted gross income to migration in 2022–2023. Within Oregon, growth is flowing toward more affordable communities — from Central Oregon to the outer suburban ring — while Portland's urban core continues to shed residents. The sections that follow examine these dynamics through Census, PSU-PRC, DMV, and IRS data at the state, county, and city levels.

Key Findings: 

• In 2024, domestic migration turned positive for the first time since 2021, with 118,547 arrivals against 112,955 departures — a net gain of roughly 5,600. Both flows declined, indicating a cooling of migration activity overall rather than a surge in new arrivals.
•  Oregon lost a net $476 million in adjusted gross income to migration in 2022–2023 despite nearly identical numbers of households arriving and departing. Departing households earned roughly $7,300 more per return than arrivals.
• The income drain is concentrated at the top: households earning $200,000 or more accounted for a net loss of $403 million — over three-quarters of the total — while Oregon gained households in every income bracket below $50,000.
• Washington is Oregon's single largest migration drain, absorbing a net 3,127 households and $487 million in AGI. California is the clear exception, providing Oregon a net gain of 6,396 households and $609 million in income.
• Oregon gains young households (under 35) through migration but loses households and income in every age group from 35 to 64, with the 45–54 cohort — peak earners — driving the largest losses.
• Both Census and PSU-PRC estimates now agree Oregon returned to growth in 2024 and 2025, though the two sources diverged sharply during 2022–2023 and a gap of roughly 27,600 residents remains between them.
• Population growth within Oregon is highly uneven: Central Oregon and the Portland suburban ring are growing while Multnomah County remains below its 2020 population. Within counties, affordable smaller cities like Estacada (+40%), La Pine (+26%), and Cornelius (+16%) are dramatically outpacing established urban centers.

Detailed Migration Flows to and from Oregon

In 2024, 118,547 approximately individuals moved to Oregon, while 112,955 residents left, indicating a net migration gain.

Incoming Migration (Inflow):

The primary sources of incoming migrants remain neighboring states, with California leading at 31,500 and Washington following with 20,388—both down roughly 2,000 from 2023, though they retain their top two positions by a wide margin. Arizona held steady as the third largest source with 7,194 movers, nearly identical to its 2023 figure of 7,144. The most notable shift was Texas, which jumped from 8th place in 2023 (3,766) to 4th in 2024 (6,446). Colorado (5,157) and Idaho (4,397) round out the top six. The close proximity and similar economic opportunities or lifestyle preferences among western states continue to shape these patterns, and the overall rate of inflows into Oregon has remained relatively stable in recent years.

Data on out-of-state driver's licenses surrendered to Oregon DMV indicates inflows continued into 2025, with 88,281 new Oregon licenses issued to out-of-state residents — led by California (22,306) and Washington (16,816).

Outgoing Migration (Outflow):

Washington remains the top destination for departing Oregonians, and outflow there actually increased in 2024 (32,341, up from 29,960). California held second place but saw a sharp decline as a destination (17,954, down from 22,162). The most notable shift is the significant drop in outflows to the Sun Belt states that dominated the 2023 story — Arizona fell from 10,465 to 4,336, Texas from 10,131 to 6,248, and Idaho from 7,458 to 4,206. North Carolina (3,152) and Florida (2,825) emerged as new entrants to the top ten destinations.

From 2010 through 2021, more individuals moved into Oregon than left each year. Outmigration surged sharply in 2022, pushing net domestic migration to -29,370 — the worst year in recent history. By 2023, outmigration had retreated significantly, though net migration remained slightly negative (-6,157). In 2024, domestic migration turned positive for the first time since 2021, with 118,547 arrivals and 112,955 departures, a net gain of roughly 5,600. Notably, both inflows and outflows declined in 2024, suggesting a broad cooling of migration activity rather than a surge in new arrivals.

IRS Statistics of Income migration data for 2022–2023 reveal that Oregon's migration challenge is as much about income as it is about population. The number of households moving into and out of Oregon was nearly identical — 64,386 arriving and 64,431 departing — yet Oregon recorded a net loss of $476 million in adjusted gross income. The gap stems from an income asymmetry between movers: departing Oregonians reported an average AGI of $82,124 per return, compared to $74,782 for arriving households — a difference of roughly $7,300 per household. In other words, Oregon is broadly replacing the residents it loses, but not the income they carried.

The table above reveals three distinct patterns in Oregon's migration income dynamics. Washington stands out as the single largest drain — Oregon loses more households and more AGI to Washington than any other state, with a net loss of 3,127 households and $487 million in adjusted gross income. The income gap is particularly stark: Oregonians leaving for Washington earn $89,730 on average while Washingtonians arriving in Oregon earn only $72,788, a difference of nearly $17,000 per household.

California is the clear exception to the drain story. Oregon gains more households from California than from any other state and posts a net AGI gain of $609 million — the only major state relationship where Oregon comes out ahead on both counts. California arrivals also bring above-average incomes at $87,846 per return, making them Oregon's most economically significant inflow.

Arizona and Nevada tell the most pointed income story. Despite relatively modest net household losses, both states attract Oregon's highest-earning leavers — $97,834 per return to Arizona and $97,422 to Nevada — well above what any major source state sends to Oregon. These flows are consistent with higher-income households relocating to lower-tax, lower-cost destinations. Colorado, New York, and Utah are the only other states besides California where Oregon posts a net AGI gain, though the amounts are modest.

The Age Profile of Oregon's Income Migration

Breaking the IRS migration data down by age reveals that Oregon's income losses are concentrated among a specific segment of movers, and that where the state does gain income, the gains come through different mechanisms. Oregon posts net household gains among movers under 35 — more than 1,100 net households in both the under-26 and 26–34 groups — and these translate into modest net AGI gains of $14.5 million and $56.8 million respectively. Notably, these gains are driven purely by volume: arrivals in both groups actually earn slightly less on average than departures. Oregon is attracting young people in numbers, not attracting unusually high-earning young people.

The picture reverses sharply at age 35. Every age group from 35 to 64 shows net losses in both households and income, and in each of these groups arriving households earn meaningfully less than departing ones. The 45–54 cohort is the epicenter of the drain — departing households in this group earn an average of $144,629, more than $27,000 above their arriving counterparts, producing the largest net income loss of any age group at $277 million. The 35–44 and 55–64 groups add another $178 million and $155 million in net losses. These are peak earning years, and the IRS data confirms what the demographic analysis earlier in this report suggested: Oregon is losing established, high-earning households in mid-to-late career and replacing them with lower earners.

The lone exception is the 65-and-over group. Oregon loses a small number of net households among retirees, but arrivals in this group are the only ones who out-earn departures — $104,707 versus $100,213 — producing a modest net AGI gain of $14.2 million. Oregon appears to retain some appeal as a destination for wealthier retirees even as it loses higher earners at every working age.

Income Levels of Oregon's Movers

Sorting Oregon's migration flows by income bracket reveals the clearest picture yet of who is driving the state's income drain. The pattern forms an almost perfect gradient: Oregon gains households in every income bracket below $50,000 and loses households in every bracket above it, with losses deepening as incomes rise. Movers earning under $50,000 contributed a combined net gain of roughly $34 million in AGI — Oregon attracts more lower- and moderate-income households than it loses. Above $50,000, the balance turns negative in every bracket, and the losses are dominated by the very top: households earning $200,000 or more accounted for a net loss of $403 million, more than three-quarters of Oregon's total net income drain from migration, despite representing fewer than 5,000 departing returns. The $100,000–$200,000 bracket added another $107 million in net losses.

These findings add important context to the high-income household trends discussed earlier in this report. American Community Survey data show the number of households earning over $200,000 in Multnomah County continued to grow through 2023, driven largely by strong income growth pushing existing households across the threshold. The IRS data clarify that this growth occurred despite migration, not because of it — on net, Oregon's highest earners are leaving the state, and the households replacing them earn considerably less. Whether driven by tax policy, cost of living, remote work flexibility, or retirement decisions, the direction of the flow is unambiguous: migration is eroding the top of Oregon's income distribution even as the overall number of high-income households continues to rise.