From Cradle to Classroom: How Falling Birth Rates are Shaping Colorado’s K-12 System
Introduction
By the close of the 2024-2025 academic year, DPS is set to close seven schools and partially restructure three others, impacting thousands of students across the district. This decision follows a unanimous vote by the DPS Board of Education in November 2024, which cited declining enrollment and the need for more efficient use of resources as primary factors. In both Douglas County and Jefferson County, several schools have closed under similar circumstances.
This outcome is primarily the result of falling birth and fertility rates—a demographic trend affecting not only the Denver region but the entire state of Colorado. Between October 2023 and October 2024 PK through 12th grade enrollment in Colorado decreased by nearly 400 students (a year-over-year downtick of roughly -0.1%).
As families have fewer children and migration patterns shift, school districts across the state are grappling with under-enrolled campuses, strained budgets, and difficult decisions regarding school consolidations and closures. These closures signal broader systemic challenges and foreshadow long-term implications for the state’s educational pipeline, including decreased demand for traditional postsecondary pathways tied to recent high school graduates.
Key Findings
- Colorado's birth rate has been declining since 2005 and has fallen at a faster pace than the national average since 2011.
- Colorado has experienced roughly a 1/4th reduction in its general fertility rate from 2020 compared to the annual average between 2001 and 2010, marking the third-largest decline in the nation.
- DPS projects a loss of approximately 6,338 students by 2028, equating to about 8% of its current student population, which stood at approximately 85,000 in the 2023–2024 school year.
- This is equivalent to the combined enrollment of East High School, Northfield High School, and South High School.
- This is equivalent to the student population of 19 DPS elementary schools, which had an average enrollment of 383 students in 2023-24.
- Over the next five years, by 2030, Colorado is expected to experience a loss of 15,035 children between the ages of 0 and 17.
- Projections from the Colorado State Demography Office indicate that some of the steepest declines in birth rates are expected in the southwestern region of the state.
- Among the counties anticipated to experience the lowest birth rates are San Juan County, with just 1.3 births per 1,000 residents; Dolores County, with 4.5 births per 1,000; and Hinsdale County, with 5.6 births per 1,000 individuals. These figures are significantly below the state average and highlight a deepening demographic contraction in rural and frontier communities—trends that carry long-term implications for school sustainability, local labor markets, and regional economic development.
Shrinking Classrooms and the Future of Colorado’s Schools
Colorado has experienced a 25.1% reduction in its general fertility rate from 2020 compared to the annual average between 2001 and 2010, marking the third-largest decline in the nation. This trending downtick in the 0-17 population is not expected to sway any time soon. DPS projects a loss of approximately 6,338 students by 2028, equating to about 8% of its current student population, which stood at approximately 85,000 in the 2023–2024 school year.
Relative to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, Colorado’s statewide PK–12 student population has experienced a net decline of approximately 0.04% (Figure 1). While there was a brief post-pandemic uptick in annual enrollment change, this recovery has proven short-lived. Over the past three academic years, the state has recorded consistent annual declines in PK–12 enrollment: a decrease of 3,253 students in 2022, followed by a loss of 1,800 students in 2023 and 399 students in 2024 (Figure 2). These figures, while incremental, reflect a sustained downward trend in student population and serve as early indicators of the long-term impact of Colorado’s declining birth and fertility rates.
Figure 1
Figure 2
According to the most recent estimates from the Colorado State Demography Office (SDO), Colorado’s population of children aged 0–17 declined by approximately 0.006% between 2022 and 2023. This year-over-year decrease represents a loss of 7,394 individuals within this age cohort.
Looking ahead, projections indicate that this decline will accelerate: by 2030, the annual growth rate for the 0–17 population is expected to fall to –0.012%, translating to a cumulative loss of approximately 15,035 children statewide. This is equivalent to the entire student body of the Thompson R2-J school district, or 17% of the entire Denver Public Schools enrollment.
SDO projections indicate that some of the steepest declines in birth rates are expected in the southwestern region of the state. Among the counties anticipated to experience the lowest birth rates are San Juan County, with just 1.3 births per 1,000 residents; Dolores County, with 4.5 births per 1,000; and Hinsdale County, with 5.6 births per 1,000 individuals. These figures are significantly below the state average and highlight a deepening demographic contraction in rural and frontier communities—trends that carry long-term implications for school sustainability, local labor markets, and regional economic development.
Bottom Line
Colorado's birth rate has been declining since 2005 and has fallen at a faster pace than the national average since 2011. This sustained decrease in fertility rates poses challenges for both K–12 education systems and higher education institutions, potentially leading to a reduced future workforce and increased competition for students among colleges and universities.