Experts:
January 23, 2024
Introduction
Arizona gained 9,200 nonfarm jobs in December (+0.29%) – the 8th-fastest month-over-month employment growth rate among all states. For perspective, the total U.S. job growth rate was 0.14%; 11 states reported job losses. Despite modest overall job growth figures, Arizona joined 15 other states in losing manufacturing jobs in December – down 100 jobs from November levels. After two years of rapid growth, manufacturing employment in Arizona declined last year.
Both Arizona’s unemployment and labor force participation rates remained fixed at 4.3% and 62.1%, respectively. On a national level, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% and the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.5% (-0.3 percentage points).
On a year-over-year basis, job growth was +2.1% through December (down from +2.7% at this time last year), making Arizona the 12th fastest growing labor market in 2023.
Since April 2020, the state has added 533,500 jobs and regained 106.5% of its pandemic-related job losses. Arizona has added 66,700 jobs since December 2022; just to keep pace with population growth the state needs to add about 75,000 jobs annually.
Key Findings – Arizona December 2023 Employment Data (BLS CES Survey)[i]
Beyond this decline, 2023 represented a divergence in the composition of employment growth from what was experienced in 2018-2019; namely,
growth shifted from productive base industries like manufacturing and other goods producing sectors to public sectors, especially government.
- Arizona private sector workers are now earning an average of $32.10/hour, compared to $30.84 a year ago (+4.1%).
- On a month-over-month basis, Arizona’s average hourly wage increased 0.9% in December – the 23rd-fastest growth rate in the country. Nationally, the average hourly wage increased6% in December (month-over-month) and +4.1% since last year (year-over-year).
- Still, substantial above-trend inflation over the last three years continues to depress household buying power – the real average hourly wage has declined more than 5% since February 2020.
